What does blowing a lead look like?

Couple of quick thoughts on the Red Sox/Yankees tilt today. The one in which the Sox could not protect a 9 run lead. I’m not going to try to get the proper adjective for that kind of thing. I don’t think that word exists. I’m just going to show you two pictures.

The following are win probability graphs, from Fangraphs.com, they illustrate the level of certainty that one team has of winning the game. The first inning begins with the home team at a little better than 50% chance, and eventually the graph ends at one team’s side, top for the home team, bottom for the visitors. The sharper and more frequent the spikes, the more varied and exciting the game action.

The first graph is from a Blue Jays game last year, a game in which they scored seven runs against Felix Hernandez, and then allowed eight unanswered to lose in the bottom of the 9th.


Note that, until the very last two plays of the game, the Blue Jays still had a better than 50% chance of pulling that one out of the fire. The bar graph on the bottom indicates how much impact each subsequent at-bat has in the game. Red bars are game-changing at bats, little bumps are low stress situations. The last five Seattle batters all came up with the game in their hands.  It was a crushing defeat, and a failure in the final moment that left a bit of an empty feeling in my gut.

This is from today’s game, NYY at BOS:


It is just a crazy line. The Red Sox are hovering at near 99% certainty of winning, and then the 6th and 7th innings completely destroy their chances, swinging the odds the Yankee’s way in just as extreme a fashion. The leverage bars at the bottom of the graph blip only once after the 7-run 7th. Boston went down to the mat, hard, and stayed there.

I doubt that I’ll see anything quite like that reversal any time soon. I bet Bobby V. is hoping exactly the same thing.

7 thoughts on “What does blowing a lead look like?

  1. I would say this rates as my favourite game of the season. If only it was the Jays on the winning end … Although I may have quit watching the game out of rage when it was 9-0 had it been the Jays.

    • Since the meltdown occured in the 7th, the singing of ‘Sweet Caroline’ would have followed the second consecutive 7 run inning by the Yankees. The irony is wonderful.

  2. For me this is a relatively easy quesiton, but has a pretty complex answer. The specialty I have actually looked forward to working with is OB/GYN. I find that the ability of a woman’s body to produce a child, endure the amount of abuse it takes during a pregnancy, and the amount of pain endured during delivery is amazing. The joy of being able to be present as life enters the world is truly one of the greatest moments in life. To me that would be the best possible option. I also would love working in the operating room with a surgeon. I have experienced the OR quite a few times, and have been on both sides of the table. I have to say I would love to work with any surgeon in the OR except for Orthopedics. The reason behind that is the surgery’s are pretty brutal when it comes to the skeletal system. Having been in the OR with an Orthopedic surgeon and seeing the use of the saws, hammers and other heavy equipment in order to perform the surgery just sends chills up my spine. I know that type of surgery is not for me. I think my favorite surgeries have to be that of the abdominal cavity. The specialties that I would least like to work for are few, and for simple reasons. Pediatrics is not a specialty for me since I have four children of my own. My Aunt is a neonatal nurse practitioner and I followed her in high school and saw the good, the bad, and the ugly so I can honestly say I could not emotionally handle that type of position. Podiatry is also an area I could not see myself working. The reason behind this is pretty silly, but here goes, I very much dislike other peoples feet especially if they are not well kept. I know in the medical field you will encounter feet on a daily basis, but I could not mainly work with feet on an everyday basis. My last specialty is Orthopedics for the reasons I noted above about the barbaric nature of the surgeries and treatments for the musculoskeletal system. Its just not for me.

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